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Kairi Rebound

Track the first daily rebound after a sharp stretch below the 25-day MA.

Measure how far the close sits below its 25-day average and mark the first confirmed rebound after an oversold warning. Adjust the thresholds and full source code for your own daily observations; returns are not guaranteed.

$39.00One-time payment · Perpetual personal use

Add to my chart

What you get

Complete Pine Script v6 source
Install guide in 8 languages
Personal-use editing license · no redistribution or resale
30-day bug support
Copy button and TXT after payment

Delivery & refund policy ↗

KAIRI REBOUND / HISTORICAL CASE

From the first rebound to seven sessions later.

TSLA · 1D · 2020.03+17.4%

Rebound close → time-exit close · before costs

A real chart period on Tesla daily in March 2020, recorded with the default settings.

After a 0.15 pp cost assumption: +17.27%
All 430 observations · mean after costs: +0.75%

TSLA, March 2020. After the oversold warning, we tracked the first confirmed rebound through the scheduled time exit.

01 / Oversold warning2020.03.16-39.4%▼ · SMA 25
02 / Rebound confirmation close2020.03.19$28.509▲ REBOUND
03 / Time-exit close, 7 bars later2020.03.30$33.475⏱ · 7

Change = (exit close ÷ rebound close − 1) × 100. Execution at those closes is assumed, not verified. No separate tax, dividend or slippage calculation.

PROBLEM → FIX

3 reasons crashes melt accounts, and the fix

"It's down a lot", so you guess the bottom by feel

▼ oversold warning once the 25-day gap passes −20% (−35% in a panic)

You grab the falling knife and end up in the basement

Entry only on the first rebound (▲) that closes above the prior high after ▼

Even after a bounce you don't know when to sell and give it all back

Clean exits marked: back within 5% of the average ✓ · low broken ✕ · 7 bars ⏱

01 / WHAT IT DOES

Three steps, shown as symbols

Symbols for stretch, rebound and exits

Record the oversold warning (▼), the first close above the prior high within 10 bars (▲), and subsequent average-return, low-break or time conditions (✓ ✕ ⏱) on confirmed daily bars.

A deeper threshold in a market panic

Shift the threshold from −20% to −35% when the relevant index is at least 8% below its 25-day MA. Automatic index mapping covers US listings, KRX and TSE only.

Stretch panel and editable code

See the stretch shading and current state and next condition on an English/Korean panel. Customize settings and the Pine v6 source for personal use.

Feature illustrations, not actual prices or performance.

03 / EVIDENCE

Historical check, unfiltered

We ran the default rules on past daily data. The results do not establish a return advantage.

Show the historical check

yfinance daily data, 2004 to 2026-10-15 · 81 currently listed US, Japanese and Korean stocks · 0.15% round-trip cost · default settings
Group	Trades	Mean	Median	Positive	Worst
All rebounds	430	+0.75%	+1.12%	54.9%	−42.5%
⚠ Market-panic rebounds	50	+9.49%	+11.28%	66%	−40.8%
Normal-market rebounds	380	−0.41%	—	—	—
Benchmark: random 7-day hold	3,240	+0.59%	—	52.1%	—

Normal-market signals were roughly break-even (mean −0.41%).
47 of the 50 panic rebounds came from Oct–Nov 2008, Mar 2009 and Mar 2020, so there are only a few independent episodes.
Only currently listed stocks were tested. Delisted companies are missing, which flatters the results.
The −20% and −35% thresholds come from secondary accounts of one trader in Japan in 2001–02.

Download this case (JSON) ↓

WITHOUT THE INDICATOR

Buying blindly on the first −20% day?

Buying at the first −20% close vs waiting for the first ▲ rebound (daily, 0.1% cost per side)

−86.8%

2008 BAC: buying right away took $1,000 down to $132. Five trades by the indicator: +37.0% (→ $1,370)

−62.6%

2022 META: buying right away took $1,000 down to $374. Two trades by the indicator: +9.9%

−61.2%

2022 Ethereum: buying right away took $1,000 down to $388. Four trades by the indicator: +21.4%

04 / INSTALL

Install on your own chart

After payment, copy the code with one button or download the TXT.

01Copy or download the code
02Paste into a new Pine indicator
03Add it to a daily chart

Past performance does not guarantee future results.

An independently coded interpretation of the publicly described moving-average deviation (“kairi”) approach associated with the Japanese trader known as BNF. Not affiliated with or endorsed by him.

KAIRI REBOUND / FAQ

Questions

What does “kairi” mean?

Kairi (乖離) is Japanese for “deviation”. Here it means how far the close sits below its 25-day simple moving average, in percent.

Is ▼ a buy signal?

No. ▼ only warns that price is stretched. The indicator then waits for ▲ REBOUND, and even that is a chart observation, not a recommendation.

Which markets does it support?

It runs on any daily chart. The automatic panic check uses the S&P 500 for US listings, KOSPI for KRX and the Nikkei 225 for TSE. Elsewhere it uses the normal −20% zone unless you choose a custom index.

Do the marks repaint?

Marks are confirmed on the candle close and stay where they were drawn. Before the close, the panel’s live values can still change.

Is it affiliated with BNF?

No. It is ChartArmory’s own code based on publicly described ideas. He has not reviewed or endorsed it.

Can I edit or share the code?

You can edit it for personal use. Sharing, redistribution and resale rights are not included.

KAIRI REBOUND · V1